Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Posts Tagged ‘Biblical Prepping’

Financial Crisis

A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself, but the simple pass on and are punished.

Proverbs 22:3

When I began writing this series back in early August, I did so as a response to a hard selloff in the stock market that followed the Fed’s decision at the end of July to lower interest rates.  As I noted in that first post in this series, I decided on the title “The Ongoing Financial Crisis of 2008” because it is my view that the market melt down that began in earnest in the fall of that year has never really gone away.

What occurred was that central banks took money printing into hyper-drive in late 2008 and early 2009 and managed to reflate the stock market bubble that had popped earlier in 2008.  I likened their actions to what the prophet Ezekiel called plastering walls with untempered mortar.  In other words, the Fed addressed the symptoms of the financial crisis, but not the cause of the crisis itself.

Eleven years later, this is still the case.  Nothing has been fixed.  Nothing has improved.  In fact, not only have things not improved, they have gotten far worse.

The 2008 crisis, what is sometimes called the Global Financial Crisis or the GFC, was a debt crisis.  There was simply more debt in the financial system than could be repaid.  So what was the response of the Fed and the federal government?  They conspired to create even more debt to solve a crisis caused by too much debt, as if somehow more of the same thing that caused the problem in the first place was also the solution!

To borrow an English proverb, this was the financial equivalent of bringing coals to Newcastle.

If a man is an alcoholic, you don’t cure hm by giving him another bottle of whiskey.  While another bottle may make him feel better for the moment, in the long run it will kill him.  Yet this is not so very different from what governments and central banks all over the world did in 2008.  They went on a spending and money printing spree, which managed to kick the can down the road but did nothing to solve the underlying problem.

As a result, while the economies of the United States and other Western nations have appeared to recover their health, the underlying fundamentals of those economies have grown steadily worse.  Just in America, our national debt has more than doubled since 2008 and now sits at $23 trillion.

Just to give you as sense of how fast debt is now piling up, it took the federal government from the founding of our country until 1982 to compile $1 trillion in debt.  Now, even mainstream sources are predicting that the annual deficit for fiscal year 2020 – this is the federal government’s fiscal year which began on October 1, 2019 and ends on September 30, 2020 – will be in excess of $1 trillion.  In other words, the federal government is adding the same nominal amount of debt in a single year that it previously took about 200 years to accrue.

Oddly, no one in Washington seems the least bit concerned about this.  Not the Democrats.  Not the Republicans.  No one except an odd fellow here and there such as Senator Rand Paul.

The Bible teaches us that debt is a burden.  At best, it is something that is to be used prudently and paid off timely.

Yet we all live with a debt-based financial system that, not only encourages debt, but actually requires debt to increase at a faster and faster pace just to keep the system from imploding.  This debt-based system of financial perdition was put in place in the United States with the passing of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.  The Fed has been destroying not only the financial fabric of the nation, but its moral fabric as well, for over 100 years.

What is true of America is also the case with all other Western nations.

We have become enslaved by debt, and all the more with each passing year.

But just as untempered mortar quickly shows itself when exposed to a little rain, so too are the phony fixes put in place in 2008 beginning to come unglued.  In fact, this author has been amazed by how badly the financial system has deteriorated in the past three months he has been writing this series.

In just that short time, the Fed has, apparently on a permanent basis, started baling out the overnight repo market, twice cut interest rates and resumed Quantitative Easing (QE).  These are all various forms of money printing, which have the long-run effect of weakening the dollar resulting in higher prices and a lower standard of living.

And these are just the activities they openly acknowledge.  In the opinion of this author, the Fed rigs all financial markets 24/7 to provide the appearance of normalcy.  Stocks, bonds, real estate and oil are propped up, while precious metals – gold and silver – and crypto currencies are suppressed.

Bet even as the Fed rigs all markets and the government statisticians put out phony economic numbers designed to understate unemployment and inflation while overstating economic growth, there are some stats that cannot be rigged.

If one looks closely at the economic numbers that are put out, he will see that, all the economic cheer leading from the administration aside, there is almost no good economic news to be found.  Here is just a sample of recent headlines showing just how serious things are getting:

 

I could easily produce many more such headlines, but I trust the reader gets the point that, economically speaking, things aren’t all that great out there.  What’s even more remarkable is that these headlines are showing up at a time when the Fed has put the money printing pedal to the metal, intervening more aggressively in the market than at any time since the height of the 2008 crisis.

But while all that money printing has, apparently, not turned around the economy, the stock market is hitting new record highs.

So which is it?  Are we to believe, the stock market, the politicians and the Wall Street cheer leaders, who tell us everything is awesome, or the economic statistics which point to an oncoming recession?

For my part, I’ll trust the economic statistics.  Not, mind you, because I think economic statistics furnish us with knowledge.  Only the 66 books of the Bible do that.  No, it’s not that economic statistics are true that causes me to trust them.  Rather, it is that the monetary and fiscal policies pursued by central banks and Western governments – that is to say, money printing and deficit spending – are morally bankrupt and will, in the long-run, inevitably lead to financial bankruptcy as well.

All this naturally leads to the question, when will the next economic crisis hit?  My answer:  I don’t know.

In my opinion, the entire world economic system should have collapsed in 2008, but extraordinary action by the world’s central banks managed to resuscitate the system.  The financial system could easily have collapsed any time since then, but for the ongoing interventions – both public and secret – of central banks and governments ever since.

In short, we’ve all been living on borrowed time.

So how much more time are the masters of the universe able, or even willing, to buy?  I don’t know.

In my opinion, the apparent quickening pace of the slide into recession seems to indicate that the time before the next major financial crisis is relatively short.  That said, this author has been amazed at the ability of the establishment to maintain order as long as they have, so I would caution against any predictions that the wheels are definitely going to come off in the short-term.  Quite obviously, the Trump administration is doing everything in its power to maintain normalcy until after the November 2020 elections, which are just under a year away.  Can they hold things together until then?  We’ll see.

But regardless of the timing, it is my thesis that a major financial crisis is coming.  This will not be a garden variety recession.  It will be like the 2008 crisis, only worse, for the simple reason that the debt crisis has gotten worse.  Instead of dealing honestly with things in 2008, all we did was double down on the debt and kicked the can down the road.

But the point is coming when the can is no longer kickable.

That’s when things will get interesting.

And that’s the reason I’ve written this series on prepping.  The bill for our debts is coming due, and I have a great burden to alert my fellow Christians to this, so that they may, as the prudent man in Proverbs 22:3, foresee trouble coming and hide themselves.

(more…)

Read Full Post »

Financial Crisis

A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself, but the simple pass on and are punished.

Proverbs 22:3

The hits – negative economic news, that is – just keep coming.  To underscore what I mean by bad economic news, consider the following headlines from just last week:

Yet for all that, stocks hit a record high on Friday with the Dow closing above 28,000 for the first time.  CNBC’s headline on Thursday summed up the mainstream financial press’ exuberance quite well, “This is now the best bull market ever.”

How is it possible, on one hand, for there to be so much bad economic news and, on the other hand, for stocks to be hitting record highs?  We dealt with this topic last week, but this topic is of such importance that it bears additional commentary.  The answer to this question, to borrow a turn of phrase from one commentator I follow regularly, is that nothing’s real.  We have fake financial markets designed to manipulate your perception of reality.

(more…)

Read Full Post »

Financial Crisis
A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself, but the simple pass on and are punished.

    Proverbs 22:3

It’s been a couple weeks since my last posting in this series, but there certainly has been no break in the flow of events. In the intervening time since my last entry on 10/20/19, there have been several noteworthy bits of financial news. Of those, the most important was the announcement from the Fed this past Wednesday that they had decided to lower the Fed Funds rate another quarter point. This was the third time the Fed has lowered interest rates in the past three months.

Now any such decision by the Fed is important given the tremendous power of the Fed to push financial markets one way or the other. The big takeaway, however, is what this decision says about the Fed’s assessment of the economy. Despite all the propaganda from the administration saying the economy is doing great, the decision by a the Fed, or any other central bank, to lower interest rates is a tacit admission that the economy is not doing well. If the economy were doing well, the Fed would be raising rates, not reducing them.

When you add to the Fed’s lowering of interest rates the ongoing (permanent?) bailout of the overnight repo market and the restart of quantitative easing (i.e. money printing), it is obvious that the those closest to the situation think that the economy is seriously struggling.

One of the justifications put forward for lowering interest rates and money printing is that there is no price inflation. But even according the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the official measure of price inflation put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI-U (the broadest measure of inflation) rose 1.7% for the period September 2018 to September 2019. But beware of official government statistics! Over the years, the federal government has changed the way it measures inflation. And it should come as no surprise that the change has been in the direction lowering reported inflation.

Economist John Williams runs a website called Shadow Stats where he purports to calculate inflation the old fashioned way. His most recent calculations of the CPI-U tell a very different story from the figures put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). As you can see Williams most recent numbers come in a little higher than those of the BLS. According to Williams, the official method of calculating inflation used prior to 1990 shows inflation running at a more than 5% annual rate. If you look at this calculations with the pre-1980 method, the difference from the current official number is even more striking. The pre-1980 method of calculating inflation indicates that the current inflation rate is almost 10% annually!

If Williams is even close to being right, all this latest round of money printing by the Fed is like dumping gasoline on a raging fire, meaning we can expect to see much higher inflation numbers going forward.

Here’s a critical idea to keep in mind when talking about price inflation: Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary event. By this I mean that inflation is always the fault of money printing by central bankers. You can watch the evening news faithfully for decades on end and you will not hear this. Ditto with the financial channels such as CNBC and Fox Business. They will never tell you the simple reason for price inflation: Central bank money printing.

Why is this? It’s not an accidental oversight. The mainstream press is essentially the propaganda organ of the establishment, and central bank money printing is the financial black magic the establishment uses to increase its wealth and power at the expense of ordinary Americans. The powers that shouldn’t be – Washington politicians of both parties, Wall Street bankers and big shot investors together with a gaggle of academic theorists and news media talking heads – have a great scam going and do not want to let ordinary Americans know how badly their being ripped off and by whom.

To borrow a turn of phrase from Warren Buffett, “If you’ve been playing poker for half an hour at the table and you still don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”

Ordinary Americans have been the patsies of the financial elite, of whom Warren Buffett is one, since the founding of the Fed over 100 years ago. The Fed’s inflation games are not only bad policy, they are also sinful in the eyes of God. The Bible unequivocally condemns “divers weights and measures” which God calls an “abomination” (see Proverbs 20:10 and 20:20 for example), which merchants of the day used to rip people off in much the same way central bankers, politicians and their super wealthy clients do today. It’s high time people woke of to this fact. End the Fed!

There’s much more that could be said about inflation and, Lord willing, I shall discuss this topic in greater depth in the future. For now, though, it is enough to know that 1) the cause of price inflation in money printing by the Fed, 2) the current method of measuring price inflation deliberately and significantly understates its true rate and 3) these facts are not reported in mainstream news outlets in order to keep the public in the dark about what is going on.

“So what,” you may ask, “does any of this inflation talk have to do with financial prepping?” Quite a lot, actually. If we understand that a falling dollar is the product of the Fed’s intentionally increasing the money supply too fast, we are positioned to understand ways of protecting ourselves against the ravages of price inflation.

(more…)

Read Full Post »

Financial Crisis

A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself, but the simple pass on and are punished.

    Proverbs 22:3

It was back in August that we began our look at the ongoing 2008 financial crisis. The immediate occasion for my writing on this topic was the sudden plunge in the US stock indices following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in late July. The market sold off hard, but managed to stabilize, or more accurately, was stabilized by the powers that be after a phone call by President Trump with three major bank CEO’s.

This was a similar situation to what happened around the end of the year in 2018. On December 23, the day before the Dow and S&P indices had their largest ever declines on Christmas Eve, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin placed individual calls to America’s six largest banks – Brian Moynihan, Bank of America; Michael Corbat, Citi; David Solomon, Goldman Sachs; Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase; James Gorman, Morgan Stanley; Tim Sloan, Wells Fargo. When the market re-opened after the Christmas break on December 26, the Dow closed up 1,086.25 points, the largest single day gain in the history of the index. This huge day was after a terrible December and in the absence of any news that would have caused a market surge.

Was there a relationship between Mnuchin’s call on December 23 and the blast off in the stock market three days later? While this can’t be formally proven, in the opinion of this author it is the most likely explanation. In short, I think that Mnuchin told these CEO’s to buy the market and that they obliged.

If my understanding is correct, this means that at least twice in the period of eight months orders came down from on high to rescue the stock markets. What, I would ask you, does this say about the state of our financial system? What are we to think of a system that requires this level of manipulation to keep from crashing?

Of course, calls from Trump and Mnuchin are not the only sort of manipulation in the financial system. In the short time that I’ve been writing this series, we’ve seen additional extraordinary measures taken by the Fed to prop up the system.

First there was the bailout of the overnight Repo market. Originally, this was to be for a few days in September. Next, they extended it to a couple weeks. Then it got pushed out to the second week of November, then it was January 2020. Just last week, Fed President James Bullard expressed his preference for a “standing repo facility.” By this he seems to mean that he wants the current repo market intervention by the Fed to become a permanent policy tool of the central bank.

And that’s not all. Last week on Wednesday, the Fed started QE4. With this latest iteration of what in 2008 was termed an “emergency policy,” the Fed will by purchasing $60 billion a month in T-Bill (T-Bills are short-term US Treasury debt instruments). Where, you ask, does the Fed get the $60 billion per month to conduct QE4? They get it by a process that, were you or I to try it, we’d be arrested. In short, they counterfeit it out of thin air.

Here’s another question you may want to ask yourself. If the economy is doing so great as we’re constantly being told by the mainstream financial press, why is the Fed running simultaneous bailouts of both the overnight repo market and the bond market, both of which are designed to prop up the stock market? The obvious answer is that, far from being the greatest economy ever, the US, and indeed the world’s, financial markets are a mess and getting messier by the day. All the hype you hear about how great the economy is doing is propaganda designed to keep you locked into the system for the benefit of those who run it.

In light of the enormous lies that are being told to the American people by government officials, by bankers, and by the press, in the opinion of this author it is imperative that God’s people hear the truth about the financial state of the country and some sound advice about how to take measures to protect themselves financially. That is the purpose of this week’s installment.

(more…)

Read Full Post »

Financial Crisis

A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself, but the simple pass on and are punished.

    Proverbs 22:3

In Part 8 of this series, we began formulating a Biblical theory of prepping. In Parts 4-7, we had looked at some examples of prepping in Scripture. While the examples of Noah, Lot and Joseph clearly establish that God approves of prepping, it seemed good to me to begin to articulate some of Christian prepping’s main components with an eye to defining the term.

In last week’s post, I closed by asking the question, For whom do we prep?, and answered, in part, that we prep for ourselves. It may seem strange to say that we prep for ourselves. After all, isn’t that just obvious? Not necessarily. The unchristian idea of altruism has so tainted many Christians’ thinking that some believers think that it is somehow sinful to think of their own interests. But although it is common to hear Christians deny they have a self interest, this is not a position consistent with the Scriptures.

Today, I’d like to continue, and hopefully conclude our discussion of the Biblical theory of prepping by exploring the other parties for whom Christians prep apart from themselves. But before we do that, I’d like to briefly review the financial news from last week.

When I began this series a couple of months ago, the stock market was recovering from a serious downturn in early August that was, apparently a reaction to the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates and the inversion of the Treasury yield curve. The Plunge Protection Team (PPT), apparently, saved the day once again, pushing the major stock indices out of correction territory. But even though the stock market has been stabilized and, at least on the surface, things seem normal, there are abundant signs that all is not well on Wall Street.

Just last week (September 29 – October 5), there were more signs of major problems in America’s economy. First, as MarketWatch reports, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped in September for the third time in four months. The expected number was 50, but the index reported 47.1 in September. So what does all that mean? When it comes to the PMI, any reading above 50 means the economy is expanding, any reading below 50 indicates economic contraction. Not only did the September number come in well below expected, but it actually was the worst reading since 2009, around the time of the last financial crisis.

Second, the ongoing “repo madness.” Not only has the Fed been bailing out the overnight repo market to the tune of $75 billion every night, but last week pledged to continue the bailout. Originally, the Fed was going to supply funds to the repo market just for a few days. This was then extended to October 10. Friday, the New York Fed announced that it will “continue to boost liquidity in money markets [the repo market] into November.” Fund manager Dave Kranzler said of the repo operations that they will eventually morph into outright money printing. With every extension of the Fed’s repo market intervention, Kranzler’s evaluation comes closer and closer to being realized.

Third, the chances of a Fed interest rate cut in October are going up. The reason behind this seems to be the previously mentioned bad September PMI reading, which was not limited to just the US, but extended to other industrialized economies as well. Please keep in mind, the Fed cuts rates when it sees economic activity slowing down, either in an attempt to prevent a recession or to pull the economy out of one. If the US economy were really as strong as the Trump Administration would like people to believe, they would not at the same time be pushing the Fed to lower interest rates.

Fourth, layoffs. As was widely reported last week, Hewlett-Packard (HP) announced that it plans to cut its workforce by up to 16% and expects to cut between 7,000 and 9,000 jobs from its global workforce of 55,000. Kroger, America’s biggest grocer, announced plans to lay off hundreds of workers last week, as question arose about its turnaround plan.

In summary, last’s weeks economic news provided further evidence that the US and world economies are slowing down. It has been in anticipation of a significant economic shock that I undertook to write this series on prepping several weeks ago. Let us now continue to look at what the Bible says about prepping.

(more…)

Read Full Post »

Financial Crisis

A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself, but the simple pass on and are punished.

    Proverbs 22:3

Last week we concluded our look at various examples of prepping the Bible. In Parts 4, 5, 6 and 7 of these series, our focus was on Noah, Lot Joseph and the teachings of Christ in that order. Not that this list exhausted all the examples of prepping found in the Bible. Indeed, there are a great deal more examples of prepping in the Scriptures than I have the time or space to discuss in this short series on Christian prepping. That said, I believe the examples we looked at are enough to establish that God approves of prepping.

It had been my intention today to follow the prepping examples discussed in Parts 4-7 with some practical advice on prepping. But the more I thought about it, the more it seemed good to follow the Scriptural examples of prepping with a more doctrinal discussion. Examples are helpful, for they help us to see the practical application of Christian doctrine, but examples do not replace doctrine.

But before we dive into Biblical prepping theory, I’d be remiss if I did not review the financial news from this past week. As has been noted previously, the main title for this series, “The Ongoing Financial Crisis of 2008,” expresses this author’s opinion that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) that struck in that year has never really ended. As some historians consider World War II to be a continuation of World War I separated by 21 years of uneasy peace, so too are there many financial market observers who argue that the next financial crisis simply will be a continuation of the GFC, separated by a decade or so of uneasy financial normalcy.

The reason some market observers argue this way, and I happen to agree with them, is that the cause of the GFC was never honestly dealt with, but rather was papered over. The 2008 crisis was caused by excessive debt, which itself was the inevitable result of a corrupt global financial system, founded as it is on the fraudulent, debt-based, central bank issued, fiat US Dollar.

When things became unglued in 2008, the US and the world in general were presented with an opportunity to deal honestly with a bankrupt – bankrupt in both the economic and moral sense of the term – financial system. It was a bit like the alcoholic being given the opportunity to clear out the liquor cabinet, sober up, and get his life back, or to again reach for the bottle and find temporary solace in the very thing that’s destroying his life.

America, and the West generally, made the wrong choice, deciding to take another hit from the debt bottle that is destroying our nations, all the while making some fabulously wealthy.

As proof that the issues of the GFC were never resolved, consider the absurd spectacle of negative interest rates. According to Mike Shedlock, there are five central banks with negative interest rates – the Swiss National Bank, Denmark, the European Central Bank, Sweden and the Bank of Japan. Negative interest rates – this is a situation where savers are charged a fee to save and borrowers are paid to borrow, the exact opposite of how a financial system is supposed to work – rob the prudent and reward the profligate. Put another way, they are the financial equivalent of calling good evil and evil good. Such a situation never could exist in a market economy, but has come about as a result of the monetary sorcery of an immoral central banking cartel that currently runs the West.

Negative interest rates are a screaming danger signal to anyone with any financial sense that there are serious problems in the global financial system, but that hasn’t stopped President Trump from calling for them.

But negative interest rates aren’t the only danger signal flashing red. As we discussed last week in Part 7, the Fed continues to bail out the overnight repo market. To give you a sense of just how big the ongoing bailout is, CNN noted on 9/20 that in the first four days of the operation, the Fed had injected over $275 billion into the repo market. “In less than a week,” CNN went on to say, “the Fed injected 34.4% of the $800 billion that it printed during the 2008 bailout.”

That is simply breathtaking. To think that in the first four days of the most recent bank rescue the Fed printed more than a third of the total it did during the 2008 crisis. And note well, that total was as of 9/20. An entire new week of repo market bailouts has since gone in the books. And the bailouts are scheduled to continue until 10/10! At the current rate, the repo bailouts will exceed the (at least publically admitted) bailouts of 2008.

Apart from its sheer size, another remarkable facet of the current repo market rescue is that the cause of the crisis has not yet been disclosed. One clue to the locus of the problem is in the fact that this is a repo market bailout. According to an article by Pam and Russ Martens posted on Wall Street On Parade, “The New York Fed is only allowed to engage in these repo transactions with its 24 primary dealers. That list of 24 primary dealers includes the securities units of big U.S. banks like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, but it also includes the U.S. based securities units of troubled foreign banks like Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, and Societe Generale (SocGen).” Because the New York Fed is not announcing which banks are drawing down the bulk of its loans, neither Congress nor the American people know if the money is flowing to U.S. banks or foreign bank subsidiaries in the U.S. Propping up troubled foreign banks in not what most Americans want their central bank to be doing.” Of course, I would add that I don’t want the Fed bailing out troubled American banks either.

So here you have this massive bank bailout going on, a bailout that more than one analyst think involves Deutsche Bank, but the American public is largely in the dark. This, naturally, is exactly what the fed and other financial ne’er do wells want. Let the people obsess about the Democrats’ frivolous impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, while the Fed once again bails out the billionaire bankers and hands the bill to the American people.

Very clearly, there are serious problems in the financial system. Enough so that it probably is inaccurate to speak of a coming Phase 2 of the GFC, for it is already upon us.

But enough of Wall Street intrigue for the moment. Let us now turn to discussing the Biblical doctrine of prepping, to see what the Scriptures teach us about how Christians should prepare for the financial storm in which we find ourselves.

(more…)

Read Full Post »

Financial Crisis

“But when you see Jerusalem surrounded by armies, then know that its desolation is near. Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those who are in the midst of her depart, and let not those who are in the country enter her.”

    – Luke 21:20-21

Last week we looked at the third of three case studies in prepping from the Old Testament, Joseph, Prime Minister of Egypt. The other two case studies were the accounts of Noah and the end of the world as he knew it and Lot’s narrow escape from Sodom. This week, I’d like to turn our attention to the New Testament and in particular to the teaching of Jesus himself that relate to the subject of prepping.

But before turning to Jesus’ teachings on prepping, it’s worth taking a little time to review the events in the financial markets last week. The general title for this series The Ongoing Financial Crisis of 2008, because it is the contention of this author that the crisis which manifested itself that year, sometimes referred to as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), has never gone away. Rather, the symptoms only were treated by massive money printing by the world’s leading central banks and other financial fakery, a great deal of which probably is still kept under wraps by the powers that shouldn’t be.

The first event from last week I’d like to look at was the New York Fed’s (The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the most prominent of the Fed’s regional banks) bailing out the overnight Repo market to the tune of $53 billion late Tuesday night, early Wednesday morning, September 17th and 18th. Now you may be asking, “So just what is the overnight Repo and why should I even care?” Good questions.

Investopedia defines a Repurchase Agreement (Repo) as, “a form of short-term borrowing for dealers in government securities. In the case of a repo, a dealer sells government securities to investors, usually on an overnight basis, and buys them back the following day…Repos are typically used to raise short-term capital…Classified as a money-market instrument, a repurchase agreement functions in effect as a short-term, collateral-backed, interest-bearing loan. The buyer acts as a short-term lender, while the seller acts as a short-term borrower. The securities being sold are the collateral.”

For most of us, the repo market is a fairly obscure corner of the financial system, something that runs in the background. But what happened overnight while most of us slept was a sudden spike in the repo interest rate, which the week before had been 2.29%, but shot up to 10% before the Fed stepped in. As CNN reported, this was the first time the fed had to bail out the overnight repo market since late 2008, which just happened to be the height of the financial crisis.

The Fed conducted further bailouts on Wednesday night and Thursday night.

Finally, on Friday the Fed announced that it would conduct daily repurchasing operations through October 10.

One big takeaway from operation repo is that market forces want to take interest rates higher, which is exactly the opposite of what the Fed wants to have happen.

Which brings me to the second event of note in the financial markets last week, the Fed’s announcement that it was lowing interest rates by 0.25%. This is the second such announcement in the past two months, the previous one coming at the end of July.

Many mainstream commentators are confused by the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates. The reason is that lowing interest rates is something central banks do when the economy is struggling, but the official line is that the American economy is doing great and has never been better. Why is this?

Think of interest rates as the price of money. If the economy is doing well, this means businesses are borrowing to expand their facilities to keep up with demand, consumers and taking out car and home loans. And what happens when demand for a thing increases? All other things equal, the price goes up. With respect to demand for loans, this means that interest rates go up.

The opposite is the case when the economy is doing poorly. There is little demand from businesses to expand, so there is little demand for business loans. Consumers don’t have the income to support car an home loans, so they too are unable to take on debt to fund these purchases. When demand for money decreases, its price, that is to say the interest rate, tends to drop.

This is where the confusion comes in. Donald Trump is out there telling the whole world that the American economy is doing great, while at the same time forcefully arguing for lower interest rates. The Fed’s decision to lower rates strongly suggests that the economy is not doing as well as the Trump administration would like you to believe. Taken together with the Fed’s needing to bail out the repo market, lower interest rates are another data point suggesting an oncoming recession.

A third item of note from last week was the return of talk about a not too far off return to Quantitative Easing (QE) from none other than Fed Chairman Jay Powell. In plain English, QE is simply massive money printing (aka counterfeiting) by central banks to buy assets no one else wants to keep interest rates under control. First employed during as an emergency during the 2008 crisis, QE is now being seriously discussed in public. Question: If the economy really is as great as the powers that shouldn’t be want us to believe, why is the Fed talking about bringing back QE?

In the opinion of this writer, the three items mentioned above – the Fed’s bailout of the repo market, it’s decision to lower interest rates, and talk about QE – strongly suggest the Fed is worried about major problems in the financial system, perhaps even a financial crisis, just around the corner and strongly suggest what the Fed will do to combat those problems: print money.

So, what are Christians to make of all this? The most logical conclusion is that we are, in fact, facing a major financial storm and we need to rig for heavy weather. That is to say, we need to get prepared and to stay prepared. All which brings us back to where we started, the teachings of Christ on the subject of prepping.

(more…)

Read Full Post »

Older Posts »

%d bloggers like this: