Lux Lucet

A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself, but the simple pass on and are punished.

Proverbs 22:3

The hits – negative economic news, that is – just keep coming.  To underscore what I mean by bad economic news, consider the following headlines from just last week:

• “US Industrial Production Plunges Most Since March 2009.”
• “Powell: S. debt is ‘on unsustainable path,’ crimping ability to respond to recession.”
• “Household Debt Climbs to Record High, Delinquencies Rise.”
• “GDP Estimates Crash on Dismal Economic Reports.”
• “Fed Prints Even More Money, Adds 3 Additional Repo Operations With Longer Maturities.”

Yet for all that, stocks hit a record high on Friday with the Dow closing above 28,000 for the first time.  CNBC’s headline on Thursday summed up the mainstream financial press’ exuberance quite well, “This is now the best bull market ever.”

How is it possible, on one hand, for there to be so much bad economic news and, on the other hand, for stocks to be hitting record highs?  We dealt with this topic last week, but this topic is of such importance that it bears additional commentary.  The answer to this question, to borrow a turn of phrase from one commentator I follow regularly, is that nothing’s real.  We have fake financial markets designed to manipulate your perception of reality.

The powers that be manipulate your perception of the economy in three main ways:  market manipulation, money printing and propaganda.  The market manipulation is done behind the scenes by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), which works to boost markets by purchasing securities behind the scenes, either to “correct” a market selloff or to prevent one from happening.  The PPT was brought into being through an executive order by President Ronald Reagan in early 1988, just a few months after the “Black Monday” selloff in November 1987.

According to Paul Craig Roberts, the PPT was brought about by then Vice President George H.W. Bush’s supporters within the Reagan administration, who had decided that “economic policy had to serve the election of Bush as Reagan’s successor.”

The official name of the PPT is the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, the colloquial term PPT being credited to a 1997 article in the Washington Post.

The PPT and its market interventions are one of the most fascinating, and ignored, aspects of the current market rally.  I would go so far as to say that, no PPT, no bull market.  If you doubt this, consider this Reuters story from just last December that chronicles Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s call for a meeting of the PPT following the disastrous Christmas Eve market selloff last year.

The PPT is not a myth.  It is not a conspiracy theory.  It’s the real deal, but the mainstream press will call you a nut case if you bring it up.

Money printing by the Federal reserve is a second reasons why the stock and bond markets appear to be much healthier than the actual underlying economy.  For my part, I consider Fed money printing to be an overt form of the covert market manipulation done by the PPT.  In a market economy, interest rates are prices – please note, interest rates are prices just like prices for other goods and services, interest rates are the price of borrowing money – set by the market, not by a monetary politburo at a central bank as is currently the practice.

As of this writing, the Fed is engaged in at least three types of money printing.  First, there is the ongoing bailout of the overnight repo market, second is the Fed’s QE4 program, and third is the Fed’s decision to lower the Fed Fund’s Rate at its meeting at the end of October.  All three of these activities require the Fed to counterfeit dollars out of thin air.  The main goal is to prop up the bond markets, thereby lowering interest rates and pushing cash into stocks which drives up the stock indices such as the Dow Jones and the S&P.

Finally, there is the propaganda issuing forth from various mainstream sources.  Whether it’s the President tweeting about record high stock valuations, or market cheerleading from TV business channels or financial publications.  Everyone wants to tout the biggest, baddest bull market of all time.  The president likes it, because it helps his reelection chances.  The financial channels like it, because it drives ratings. Wall Street loves it, because it drives sales and commissions.

But what all these interested parties want you to ignore is that the bull market is not built upon the solid ground of a healthy economy, but is a mirage built upon the sand of financial fakery.

There is much more that could be said about our current fake markets and, Lord willing, I hope to continue to publish on this even once this series is concluded.

For now, the big takeaway for Christians is that, as is so often the case, appearances are deceiving.  The Apostle Paul tells us we are to walk by faith and not by sight, and I think his words have an application to our current economic situation.  We see in the news headlines that the economy is doing great.  Why, just look at the stock market if you doubt this!  But appearances can be deceiving.  If we look at what the Scriptures say about honest commerce, we can see that things such as market manipulation, money printing and propaganda have no place in an honest economic system.  And if I’m right about these activities forming the basis of our current bull market, then it is reasonable to expect a massive collapse of that market at some point in the future.

When does the collapse come?  I don’t know.  Things have gone on far longer than I ever thought they would.  In fact, most financial commentators whose views are similar to mine will tell you the same thing.  They thought things would have imploded years ago, but here we are still riding the bull market.

But whether a collapse comes relatively soon, or whether it is years away, as Christians we know that any financial system built upon fraud, as to a significant degree our is, cannot have a happy ending.  For this reason, we make preparations against the day, near at hand or far off, when we will need them.

Practical Prepping, Necessities     

So far we’ve looked at both the financial and career aspects of practical prepping.  I put these financial aspects of practical prepping first, because I think they are the most basic.  This may seem counter intuitive to some, since many people associate prepping with heaping up large stockpiles of provisions.  But from a strictly material standpoint – note well, I’m not here speaking of the importance of having saving faith in Christ, which is the cornerstone of all Christian prepping – there is nothing more important than having your financial house in order.

If your finances are sound, you’re in a great position to remedy any material shortcomings to your preparedness.  If you’re destitute, there’s not much you’re going to be able to do to get ready for a crisis.

One additional general point about prepping, including prepping for a financial crisis which has been the main focus of this series, is that prepping is really mostly about taking the reasonable precautions we should be taking anyway.  There are all sorts of disasters we all can face at any time that have nothing to do with a global financial crisis.  Earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, wildfires, droughts, job loss, and sudden illness are all examples of crisis situations we’ve either experienced ourselves or likely know someone who has.

One good place to begin learning about prepping is the FEMA website, where you can find a free online prepping guide.

Quick, get to the store and buy some bread and milk!

Although my friends from points north insist that people in Cincinnati don’t know what winter is, nevertheless we do normally have a few occasions during the winter months where the weather gets nasty enough to make getting to the grocery store difficult.

With a certain amount of comic regularity, when the weatherman forecasts any appreciable amount of snow, people make a beeline for the grocery store to, as the cliché goes, stock up on bread and milk.  It’s actually something of a running joke around here.  “The white death is coming! Get some break a milk.  Now!”

But while the whole break and milk thing is good comic relief, there is an important lesson we can take from it: food and drink are essential to prepping.  When it comes to buying necessities, food and water need to be at the top of your list.

This naturally raises the questions, what should I buy and how much? Taking the how much question first, this article suggests aiming for a two-week supply for starters.  Now if you’re like a lot of people, this may sound impossible or absurd to you.  But having the ability to make if for a period of time on your own supplies is one of the main goals of prepping.

Remember, if we have a major shock to the financial system, those store shelves that are always so full of food are going to be emptied quickly.  What is worse is that they likely won’t be restocked for some time thereafter.  You see, if there is a major financial crisis, it is going to affect the credit markets, and today our entire supply chain runs on credit.  An interruption to the credit markets means an interruption to the ability of suppliers, shippers and retailers to purchase products and get them to the stores.

You’ve probably seen pictures of stores in places where there was a natural disaster.  Well, image that on a nationwide scale.  That is a real possibility.  When we store food and water for our families and for ourselves, we’re not doing it with the thought that this is always going to be the way things will be.  Very likely, even in the event of a major financial collapse, at some point goods will start flowing to stores and become available for purchase.  What we want to be able to do is to make it to the other side.

According to this article, experts recommend that everyone have a least a 72-hour emergency supply.  The same piece also notes that many preppers aim for two weeks.  Some people I listen to think six months is more realistic.

I realize that talking like this can lead some to despair.  “I could never store two weeks’ worth of food, let alone six months!” some may say.  Perhaps that is so.  But here’s the thing, most people have never even taken the most basic steps at prepping.  Even if you have three days’ worth of food and water, you’re probably better off than the majority of your neighbors.

My suggestion is to think about what you can reasonably do now, the biggest considerations being space and money.  If the most you can do is to store a food supply for three days, then build up a three days ‘supply of food.  This could be in the form of regular items you already buy from the grocery store.  Another option for food is to go the freeze-dried route, which will allow you to store food long-term in a fairly compact form.

As far a water goes, there’s nothing wrong with starting with packs of bottled water. These can be purchased cheaply.  And since you probably will have opportunity to use them even in non-emergency situations, you can always add new stock as you use up the old.

Christian Social Capital

One area that often doesn’t get enough attention from preppers is what one writer calls social capital.  Some preppers like to imagine themselves as lone wolves, holding out against a hostile world with nothing to rely on but their own preps and moxie.  I’m not saying that such a situation could never be the case, but the Biblical pattern for Christians seems to point us to reliance on our fellow believers.

Think about the Apostle Paul, how he encouraged the Gentile churches he had planted to take up an offering for the Jewish saints in Jerusalem who were suffering due to persecution.  In Galatians, he wrote, “Therefore, as we have opportunity, let us do good to all, especially to those who are of the household of faith.” By this, Paul tells Christians that they have a special responsibility to watch out for the well-being of their fellow believers.

But as believers, how can we be in a position to help other Christians, or receive help ourselves, if we are not part of a local church body?  The author of Hebrews enjoins his readers not to give up assembling together as was the practice of some.  Now there are many good reasons to belong to a local church, which are not connected to prepping.  That said, Christians who faithfully attend a local church are in a very strong position compared to those who are loosely connected to a faith family or have no church home at all.

As members of a local church, we can use our gifts and material goods to help those in need.  There’s also a good chance that someone in the congregation will be a position to help us in an area where we lack.  I would go so far as to say that having strong connections to a local church is one of the most important aspects of Christian prepping.

This highlights one of the themes I’ve come back to several times in this series: A great deal of prepping is just doing the things we should be doing anyway.  As Christians, we know, or should know, that we are called to be part of a local church.  Now I realize there are exceptional circumstances, such as someone living in an area where there is no faithful church.  But throughout the New Testament, membership in a local church body is presented as the norm for Christians.

Deacons to the rescue

Of all the church offices, perhaps none is held in as little regard as the deacon.  Ministers and elders – just for the record, ministers and elders are the same office; following John Robbins, I hold that the modern distinction between teaching and ruling elders is unbiblical – tend to get respect, but deacons often seem to be the Rodney Dangerfields of the church – they get no respect at all.

But if we read our Bibles carefully, it was the office of deacon that the apostles first established in Jerusalem – see Acts 6 – and two of the deacons selected by the congregation, Stephen and Philip, actually preached.  Stephen was famously martyred as a result of his powerful sermon, and Philip was a noted evangelist.  Further, the qualifications listed for deacons are quite daunting.  They are to be men of the highest moral character, as are their wives, and they are to rule their households well.  Scripture says that such men “obtain for themselves a good standing and great boldness in the faith which is in Christ Jesus.”

Deacons, in my view, will have a critical role to play in any financial collapse scenario, matching available resources with those in the congregation who need assistance.

I would go so far as to suggest that it would be wise for churches to have contingency plans in place now for a collapse scenario.  As is likely the case, there are probably few churches that have made such plans.  If you’re not sure, perhaps this is something to discuss with your church’s deacon board.

Closing Thoughts 

A number of years ago, I went to Ukraine and a short-term mission trip where we conducted a Vacation Bible School at a church in that country.  I’ve never forgotten that experience.  One of the things that impressed me the most about the Ukrainian believers I met was how resourceful they were.  The family I stayed with had this amazing vegetable garden in their back yard – really, it was more like a miniature farm than a garden – where they grew all sorts of produce.  Mind you, this was not a hobby garden, but one that was an integral part of their food supply.  And it wasn’t just the family I stayed with who did this, it seemed that everyone in the town where we stayed was of necessity a gardener.  When it comes to prepping, the Ukrainians were world-class professionals who put any of my efforts to shame.

The truth is, there are always going to be people who are much more creative and resourceful than you or I when it comes to stockpiling food, water and other necessities.  But the Christian prepper should not concern himself with how much he has in comparison to someone else.  The important thing is that we act reasonably given the opportunity we have.

I have not attempted in this post to lay out a detailed list of prepping items for you.  Others can do that much better than I can.  If you have questions about where to start, that list I provided above from the FEMA website is not a bad place to start.  Here it is again.

But rather than focusing on long lists of thing to buy, my intention here was to flesh out a Christian approach to practical prepping by emphasizing first, the serious situation our economy faces, which, in my opinion, ought to prompt Christians to take prepping seriously and second, emphasize the importance of the local church in any Christian approach to prepping.

In closing, I’d like to quote the psalmist who wrote, “Behold, the eye of the LORD is on those who fear Him, on those who hope in His mercy, to deliver their soul from death, and to keep them alive in famine.”

As Christians, we know our survival in any extreme situation ultimately does not depend upon our own work, but upon the Lord who has promised to be faithful and supply our needs.  But let us not make the mistake of some and take this to mean that we have no responsibility to make ready for hard times.

God ordains both the ends (our survival amidst trouble) and the means by which that deliverance takes place.  Just as God warned Joseph of the seven lean years, so too does he warn Christians today to take time to read, to understand and to apply his word to the dire financial condition of the West today.  Of all people, Christians should understand the dangers the West faces the best, so of all people we have the greatest responsibility to make ready.

Pray and work, that’s the Biblical pattern.

Let us seek the Lord’s face and then get down to the business of making ready.